Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 26.206862 27.884961 29.680843 31.757321 34.106987 36.701466 39.808588
2025-11-16 23.209528 25.404318 27.879336 30.914850 34.592388 38.980264 44.737371
2025-11-23 22.024115 24.571679 27.549990 31.360969 36.222155 42.392797 51.147740
2025-11-30 20.897953 23.643780 26.941098 31.299724 37.092255 44.834307 56.605493
2025-12-07 19.875153 22.729773 26.229935 30.978083 37.504219 46.618639 61.364484
2025-12-14 18.608850 21.419358 24.909142 29.719237 36.471843 46.174433 62.543026
2025-12-21 18.046813 20.953117 24.623867 29.795268 37.273341 48.466846 68.574029
2025-12-28 17.645336 20.660299 24.532457 30.108016 38.418290 51.406324 76.423945
2026-01-04 16.940399 19.933402 23.815563 29.479265 38.078681 51.888412 79.738592
2026-01-11 16.714318 19.820860 23.913722 30.011432 39.553808 55.591909 90.662298
2026-01-18 16.411838 19.587996 23.827509 30.257108 40.585836 58.668673 101.379074
2026-01-25 15.884867 19.028674 23.256411 29.734465 40.302396 59.264552 106.290115
2026-02-01 15.160128 18.241113 22.422019 28.909527 39.696853 59.665301 112.489523
2026-02-08 14.495305 17.517973 21.656881 28.161170 39.189382 60.280557 120.194000
2026-02-15 14.227366 17.323155 21.628102 28.543844 40.681937 65.327758 146.014011
2026-02-22 13.861903 16.971706 21.346102 28.491296 41.372005 68.819233 170.849932
2026-03-01 13.468127 16.561237 20.951745 28.219100 41.607967 71.320005 195.541870
2026-03-08 12.894687 15.873461 20.111385 27.149945 40.190091 69.438363 195.789617
2026-03-15 12.649420 15.646390 19.953404 27.214675 41.009089 73.497804 238.485678
2026-03-22 12.470307 15.506137 19.917740 27.480719 42.264639 79.160574 313.352046
2026-03-29 12.111186 15.090827 19.439858 26.945518 41.788370 79.740418 347.691789
2026-04-05 12.003375 15.038930 19.521779 27.398594 43.476820 87.509911 534.067460
2026-04-12 11.846128 14.907306 19.470780 27.607428 44.660014 94.252240 871.264836